North Carolina going to Obama

Take it out of the toss-up column, guys.  40% of NC voters already voted in early voting.  Dems outvoted Reps 2:1.  Which means that McCain has to win today by a huge margin.  Here are a few scenarios I worked up based on CNN's reported tally of Dems and Reps who voted early.  This is not a vote count, but a voter count.  Voters registered with a particular party tend to vote over 90% of the time with their party.  I'm going to assume that the mutual effect cancels out.

All counts are in millions.  North Carolina has 6.2 million registered voters and no ability to register and vote on the same day.  I'm assuming a 5 million vote turnout, which is extremely high.  Any lower-turnout scenario has McCain much further behind.  Notice that to eek out a 50% + 1 win, McCain needs to essentially reverse the results of the early voting today, and win by 20%.

This one is done, folks.  The good people of North Carolina have already turned in the first "tossup" state to Obama.