Calling NM for Obama

RealClearPolitics has NM as a Lean Obama state.  

So far, 192,000 people have voted.  That's 73% of the total vote in 2004.  The voter split? 52/32 for Obama.  Even if voter turnout doubled vs 2004, McCain would have to pull out a 20% win in Tuesday voting to pull this one out.  Not gonna happen.

In the 2 states I've looked at (and I'm ignoring the RCP Solid Obama and McCain states), the polls are inaccurate, but in the opposite way that most pollsters have predicted: they underestimated Obama's vote total.  One anecdote from Salon this morning said the voters were much younger and less white than is normal.  Maybe the phantom youth vote is actually here.  If so, all those polls that use land lines (and not cell phones) have badly underestimated the effect of these mobile voters.

Yee-haw!  2 for 2.