Debate Expectations

I've already predicted an Obama win for tonight's debate.  Here is a little outline of what I expect to see:

1) The economy.  McCain's plan resembles Obama's plan an awful lot.  Except that he wants to give a capital gains tax cut, which is paid 66% by people who make over $1M per year.  These are not millionaires.  They make a million every year.  Expect Obama to drive that home in a bunch of different ways.

2) William Ayers.  McCain pretty much promised to bring up William Ayers in an interview on the radio yesterday.  Expect Obama to counter with either a "We all know people who have made mistakes and made up for them.  30 years of exceptional cummunity service earns a little forgiveness, does it not?" or a "The Bill Ayers I knew and worked with was busy helping improve Chicago's schools.  The Charles Keating you knew and worked with was busy greasing the hands of Senators like you."  I expect a little of both.  Obama was pretty direct in the 2nd debate and I don't think he'll be shy in this one, either.

3) Campaign tactics.  Many people of all political stripes have denounced McCain's recent tactics that have stoked hate.  It is unclear how much of that is McCain and how much is his campaign staff.  Nevertheless, expect some talk about divisiveness from Obama.  A riff on "Who is the real Barak Obama?" could easily come forth, and it would be devastating to McCain if Obama delivers it in his regular conversational, non-adversarial tone.  

4) McCain will be desperate, and although I don't expect him to melt down, I expect Obama will be the cooler hand.  McCain will make same rash mistakes (as bad as "that one"), and viewers will see Obama, once again, acting Presidential.

5) Fox News viewers will agree overwhelmingly by 70%-30% margin or so that McCain won.  The whole rest of the world will give it 60%-40% to Obama.

Countdown is on - 3 hours and 38 minutes until it starts.