De-bate De-brief

I watched an hour of MSNBC last night after the debate, but haven't done any reading on reactions yet.  Here is my take on my predictions from yesterday:

1) The economy.  Obama did not take this home like I would have liked to see.  It is clear that Joe the Plumber would get a tax break, even if he buys the business.  Obama didn't come out and say that, he said everything but that and relied on viewers to put it together.  

2) William Ayers.  Again, not as strong as I would have liked to see.  On the one hand, he wasn't defensive (good) and on the other he wasn't offensive (good).  But he did not send back some mud to McCain.  In hindsight, I think this infuriated McCain, because I bet he had some good comebacks for Keating ready to go.  "Dang, I wasted all that time again!"  Listing the members of the charity board was masterful.  

3) Campaign tatics.  This was a very good exchange.  I cringed when Obama said all McCain's ads have been negative.  It's true for the past 2 weeks, but not for the past few months.  Otherwise, I loved it.  For Obama to say "terrorist" and "kill him" was just chilling.  He tacitly stated that there are people who support John McCain who want to kill the first African-American candidate for President.  John McCain's reply: the people that come to my rallies are the most patriotic people in America.  Huh???  You just defended this stuff?  For McCain to then get defensive and say that people at Obama rallies say mean things, too was fair.  But he had not one example.

4) I was 100% right on this one.  McCain was visibly angry and frustrated.  He kept interrupting both the moderator and Obama, which just looked rude and unpolished.  He would attack, Obama would successfully repel the attack, and I could almost see him going, "Okay, where's my next zinger?  Ooh, he won't be able to do take that one!"  This is not the guy who could go in negotiations with any group and get something done.  In the Senate, they all have to hang together.  It's a captive negotiating group - Senators have to talk to each other.  The world is not such a stage.  Picture McCain in a group of other national leaders, interrupting and rolling his eyes, and you quickly understand that this guy is not the guy who can get anything done with other world leaders.  They are free to disengage from people who are condescending and mean-spirited.

5) I didn't give Fox viewers enough credit.  Even they gave Obama a significant margin of victory.  I was right on other polls: Obama 2:1.  

Given the McCain we saw last night, I don't think he has a chance.  First, he doesn't have a consistent strategy except for attack.  And attacks show over and over that they don't work any more.  Obama is a clean enough politician that there just isn't much dirt on him.  For McCain, who is just as dirty, to keep attacking looks hypocritical.  Because it is.  People are sick of Bill Ayers.  They don't care.  People want to understand the economy and what to do about it. 

In marketing, one key thing you must do to be successful is differentiate your product.  McCain has an economic differentiator, but it's not one that will get him votes: another tax cut for the rich.  He's playing to the Republican base now.  They were going to vote for him anyway.  Obama knows he can't get them.  So Obama doesn't even address things that only the Conservative base will care about.  He addresses things that people in the middle and people on the left can talk about.  He's a big-tent guy.  McCain, as he recognizes that he's losing more and more of those middle voters, is increasingly a small-tent guy.

Pundits like to talk about swing voters.  That's the 10-15% whose vote is completely up for grabs.  Obama has taken most of the swing voters, and is encroaching on those who voted reliably Republican in the past but are willing to listen to other ideas.  That's how he's winning across America.