Position Paper: Global Warming

I am not for or against global warming. I have seen enough on both sides that I am not convinced that global climate change is anthropogenic. The whole debate about CO2 and its effects on the global climate is a red herring.

"A RED HERRING?!?!?!" I can hear my fellow liberals opine. America will not curb its carbon emissions enough to meet the increasingly urgent deadlines proposed by climate change scientists. And neither will China or India. Thus, the whole point is moot.

Rather, it is time to say, "The global climate is changing. That's what climates always do. So how do we best equip ourselves to deal with that change?" This is the most effective way of dealing with the issue in a way that makes a difference.

As the permafrost melts, the north pole loses its ice cover, and birds migrate earlier and earlier, the reality is that the earth's climate is changing. What does that mean? For farmers, it may mean changing crops. Oregon oranges? Alaska corn? The change to watersheds is potentially huge, as current sources dry up, and new infrastructure is required to capture new water sources. Will Albuquerque run out of water? Will Timberline ski resort no longer be able to offer 365-day skiiing? Will vacation getaways in the Kenai peninsula get warmer and thus more valuable? Will the US South use more AC as summers warm up? How much less winter heating oil will the NorthEast use?

As secondary effects, what do those changes in energy use mean to global policy? Will we have less need to import grapes from Chile when there is a very long growing season in the US? Will we care more or less about projecting our military in the Middle East?

Global warming is really not about the if or the when. The if is taken care of because the when is always. It is about the how. How have we thought about and planned for the likely changes in our climate?

I'm lucky - I live in Oregon, not in Phoenix or Albuquerque. We're likely to continue getting plenty of water, and high temperatures mean less skiing, but a longer hiking season. No problem for most humans around here. Wildlife is a different story.

What will effect me hugely? Energy. See a later position paper on that.