The Morning Stars have a gig!

Sorry to get redundant in this blog, but I gotta say - Sunday nights are simply euphoric.  

Last night, we decided to adopt a name for ourselves.   We're the Morning Stars.  It's a reference both to D&C 128:23 and Job 38:7. 

And I found out the times for our first gig.  We're singing for the Bethany Ward Christmas Celebration on December 6th.  This is a big event.  Santa and crafts start at 5:45.  Dinner is served at 6:30.  The music starts at 7:30.  The whole shindig is free, and there is no suggested donation (or a box to put one in if you wanted to).  

The party is always packed to say the least.  Dinner last year was 800, I think.  It's usually pretty basic - ham, potatoes, rolls, salad, and water.  But it's all tasty, and the place is full of kids.  Our playlist is as follows:

Good King Wenceslas

Jingle Bells

Deck The Hall (maybe)

O Holy Night

What Child is This?

We've got a ton of stuff in the till right now - we spent most of our last rehearsal playing with new things, including a song from "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" and some patriotic pieces that the MoTab did recently.  It is something far north of fun to be able to open a hymnal, pick any song, and get gorgeous 4-part a capell-iciousness out of it.  I don't think I'll ever tire of it.

We'll probably sing another time in December, and then a brief hiatus of performing, while we work up some Valentine's day stuff and a sacred piece or 2 to have ready on a moment's notice.  It's cool to all be in the same ward, so we can take advantage of spontaneous opportunities like that.  

I Love Making Music

5 weeks ago, 3 friends from church agreed to join me in a men's a capella group.  We don't have a name yet, but we're making music.

My happiest times in life are either when I'm with my family or creating something.  Legos, writing, drama, and music are my creative loves.  What I love about music is that it's never done being created.  You create the music anew each time you sing it, if you're doing it right.  If you have stopped creating music, then all you have is notes.  When you finish a song, you should be ready to high-5 somebody, pray, or cry.  It should take you to those places.  It's a participatory sport. 

I am very blessed to have friends who feel the same way.  We sing because we love to sing.  We figure that the performance opportunities will come if we have music to offer.  The hour and a half that we sing each week is the highlight of my week.  We create, we joke, we bond.  And we make music.  

We're looking for another 2 men to join us - any takers?

Veterans

I was reading a comment from a friend's Facebook page today which juxtaposed the high percentage of Americans who feel the country is on the wrong track with the fabulous realities of living in America.  By implication, if Americans are upset about the way the country is headed, they are ungrateful for the safety, security, and wellness they enjoy.

I'm one of those Americans who, until last Tuesday, was unhappy with the direction America was headed.  I am profoundly grateful for the things we take for granted (as does the rest of the developed world): safety, freedom of movement, freedom of speech, and infrastructure that delivers water, electricity, and even broadband to almost everyone.  

I was unhappy with the direction our country was heading because I saw us squandering the opportunity to use these blessings in the best way.  Darfur.  Rwanda.  Burma.  Pakistan.  The uninsured.  Iraq.  The hungry.  The tired.  There are so many ways we could use our good reputation and resources, and instead both are squandered on petty political gamesmanship and personal revenge.  We saw our liberties erode as any citizen could be considered an enemy combatant and denied habeas corpus or a free and fair trial by a jury of his peers.

I was unhappy that the country I loved had diminished its standing in the world, and was wasting the lives of its citizens to promote an agenda that would only lead to more war.

Thank God for an all-volunteer armed forces, filled with good women and men who want to serve our country.  I am thankful for their services, and hope that as a citizen I can be worthy of their sacrifice.  And I hope our nation values their service and heroism enough to only put them in harm's way when it is truly justified.

Here's to 4 years...

...of a President who actually cares about us.

That was my toast to Obama as my family raised our glasses of sparkling cider to toast his victory tonight. 

I hadn't put together my hopes in as essential a form until that moment.  I have never felt that Bush actually cared about me.  But Obama does.  He's been in my shoes, finding a way to pay for his own college, paying student loans, working a job while living in a small apartment.  Watching him with voters, he looks natural, like he does care and understand.  Watching him with his family, and how comfortable he and Michelle are together makes me all warm and fuzzy.  

This is a guy who loves his family, and is not used-car-salesman empathetic (like Bill Clinton was).  

I'm so thankful that I live in America.  Here's to hoping Dems can govern well.

Calling NM for Obama

RealClearPolitics has NM as a Lean Obama state.  

So far, 192,000 people have voted.  That's 73% of the total vote in 2004.  The voter split? 52/32 for Obama.  Even if voter turnout doubled vs 2004, McCain would have to pull out a 20% win in Tuesday voting to pull this one out.  Not gonna happen.

In the 2 states I've looked at (and I'm ignoring the RCP Solid Obama and McCain states), the polls are inaccurate, but in the opposite way that most pollsters have predicted: they underestimated Obama's vote total.  One anecdote from Salon this morning said the voters were much younger and less white than is normal.  Maybe the phantom youth vote is actually here.  If so, all those polls that use land lines (and not cell phones) have badly underestimated the effect of these mobile voters.

Yee-haw!  2 for 2.

North Carolina going to Obama

Take it out of the toss-up column, guys.  40% of NC voters already voted in early voting.  Dems outvoted Reps 2:1.  Which means that McCain has to win today by a huge margin.  Here are a few scenarios I worked up based on CNN's reported tally of Dems and Reps who voted early.  This is not a vote count, but a voter count.  Voters registered with a particular party tend to vote over 90% of the time with their party.  I'm going to assume that the mutual effect cancels out.

All counts are in millions.  North Carolina has 6.2 million registered voters and no ability to register and vote on the same day.  I'm assuming a 5 million vote turnout, which is extremely high.  Any lower-turnout scenario has McCain much further behind.  Notice that to eek out a 50% + 1 win, McCain needs to essentially reverse the results of the early voting today, and win by 20%.

This one is done, folks.  The good people of North Carolina have already turned in the first "tossup" state to Obama.  

Some good early results

Some sites I'm looking at to start off the day:

CNN early voting tabulator

George Mason University: County level early voting data

With the assumption that approximately 93% of registered party voters (registered Dems or Reps) vote with their candidate, early voting shows a large advantage for the Dems.  Early voting is usually more white and older than the demographics show this year.  

North Carolina shows a huge advantage for voting Dems.  There is also a huge registered voter advtange for Dems in NC.

According to the Rachel Maddow show on Air America last night, 300,000 more Dems than Reps had voted early in Florida as well.  

The George Mason site highlights that Dems out voted Reps in early voting by roughly 50% to 30% in many states.  A quick perusal did not show that Reps had outvoted Dems in any state in early voting.  The remaining 20% of voters are not registered to a party.  Some other data points to a trend for these independents to break for Obama as well.

Update:

A not-so-quick perusal showed that Reps did lead Dems in early voting in 2 states: Nebraska and Wyoming.  In both cases, Reps lead by 2:1.  Congrats Mac: you got 2!

The Election Tomorrow: Tired Yet?

I expect a strong Obama victory.  By that, I mean that 1 state will not determine the outcome of the presidential election, as it has for most of my voting life.  

Otherwise, strong pickups in both the House and Senate look very promising.  

Despite my constant attention to the race, and how exciting it has been, I'm tired.  I'm excited now for it all to be over.  How is the media coverage going to change?  What will the new issues be?  Are we really going to have a clear exit strategy from Iraq?  What kind of tax plan will the congress pass?  Will the Dems be able to bring enough Reps over to regularly defeat filibusters?  Will we actually see a change in health care? 

For me, the largest question is this: will the overheated, over-partisan rhetoric calm down in an Obama administration?  Will Reps be able to stop calling Dems traitors, socialists, and un-American?  Will Dems be able to stop looking backward and pointing fingers?

That's it for now - more tomorrow.